According to @caprioleio, there is a 34% chance quantum computing breaks Bitcoin within the next three years, implying BTC’s present value should be discounted by roughly 34% today, source: @caprioleio, X, Dec 17, 2025. He states that a network fix would take about 2–3 years to deploy, so the implied quantum-risk discount rate is increasing every day, source: @caprioleio, X, Dec 17, 2025. For trading, his framework suggests pricing a higher risk premium into BTC spot and long-dated exposure and reassessing term structure and downside tail risk as markets incorporate quantum computing risk to Bitcoin, source: @caprioleio, X, Dec 17, 2025.